The Path to 270 - Unpacking the U.S. Presidential Election

Reflections on my time in the U.S. this year - how do we build bridges across difference? What is needed to embed civility in our public discourse? What does the US election mean for us in Canada?

Dear community,

Today is the day. 

Voters in the US are heading to the ballot box to elect their 47th President. In what is arguably the most consequential election in recent memory - in not only the ‘Land of Liberty’ but truly the world - the race will be razor thin: a couple of hundred thousand votes (and voters) will influence the ultimate outcome. That’s despite the fact that over 187.5 million people are registered to vote. 

For some time now, I’ve been a dedicated student of U.S. Politics and Canada-US relations consuming my fair share of podcasts, articles, books, and YouTube videos (which U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen suggests we Canadians can sometimes indulge in a bit too much).

However, nothing replaces speaking directly to the American voter. 

And that’s exactly what I got to do in 2024. 

This year, spread out throughout the last 7 months, I had the fascinating privilege of spending nearly 4 weeks in the U.S., engaging in dialogue with Americans from all walks of life such as academia, civil society, government officials, the private sector, labour unions, youth movements, think tanks, and multilateral agencies. 

After connecting with dozens of Americans of various political persuasions, a few observations came to the forefront. 

First, I realized how desperately Americans (and truly all of us around the world) want to build bridges across differences. 

The polarization and deadly political violence that festers in the US and, yes, even here in Canada, is unhealthy and deeply corrosive. It wears us all down and frays at the social fabric that should be bringing us together. Often, we have much more in common than that which separates us. But you wouldn’t know it when you turn on the TV or scroll through social media. 

On the optimistic front, people know there is an issue. From state to state to state, I spoke with Americans who identified this political culture needs to change - and fast. But that’s easier said than done. 

I think part of the solution lies in the scholarship and community activation of changemakers such as Dr. J. Cherie Strachan. 

In a fascinating session in Ohio last month, I learned about the vital work Dr. Strachan is leading in supporting students at the University of Akron and beyond to have the skills they need to engage in true deliberative dialogue. She talked about the value of finding a better ‘third way’ and learning how to participate in conversations that can lead to compromises instead of checkmates.

Sadly, these skills are in shorter and shorter supply because in North America and perhaps elsewhere in the world, there are fewer opportunities to develop connections and understanding across differences of opinion. We have become out of practice. Over the last few decades, our ‘civic infrastructure’ has been eroding. Accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic but starting well before then, there has been a decline in people engaging in community associations, local post-offices, and broad based volunteering. Where before we might have had more spaces for dialogue and deliberation through town councils and bowling leagues (remember the Town Meetings that took place in fictional Stars Hollow on Gilmore Girls), there are fewer places to come together to discuss, debate, and work through differences.  

It did spark a question. While it is very valuable to shift the mindset and bring more deliberative dialogue to the public discourse one person at a time, how can we do it at scale? Can we legislate civility? And what is the cost of not acting soon enough? We are already hearing how many underrepresented groups such as women and gender diverse people, young people, and Black, Indigenous and racialized communities are turned off - will it eventually be too late? 

Big thank you to the phenomenal Camara Chambers and the entire team at The Dais, a public policy and leadership think tank based at Toronto Metropolitan University, for an outstanding 2024 CanStudyUS Home and Away Fellowship. Across the 6 days of this professional development experience, we travelled across 4 U.S. cities across several swing states - Akron, Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Pittsburg - understanding what makes these cities and their voters tick. Incredible curation and truly one of the best educational experiences I’ve had the privilege of engaging in.

It felt so great to be back as an alumni mentor sharing my career insights and lessons in community activation, public policy and diplomacy with the CanStudyUS Fellows. Kudos to Camara, Catherine, Fahmida, Jillian, Karim, Tanya, and everyone who made the trip possible! Also, a big shout-out to the Knowledge Facilitator who shared her brilliant insights and perspectives having lived in several swing states throughout the trip - Dianna English! Big thank you to 2024 CanStudyUS Fellow, Young Diplomats of Canada Executive, photographer extraordinaire and overall lovely humans Michael Lecchino, Catherine Amburgey and Tanya Coyle for the awesome snaps!

The trip and its insights were truly a powerful call to action that the work of many of the communities I’m part of in working towards positive change and community organizing is more important than ever before. It’s a powerful antidote to apathy and necessary to get us to a better tomorrow where we can look across the aisle and identify the points of connection rather than division.  

Secondly, I was struck by the great sense of palpable ‘political pain’ so many Americans I spoke to were expressing. 

Several folks I spoke to, whether they were choosing to vote between ‘the lesser of two evils’ or abstaining altogether, felt stuck between a rock and a hard place. For some, the choices on offer were less than ideal. They wished they could live in societies like Canada where there were more political choices that better aligned with their political leanings.  Many folks expressed the two-party system in the U.S. fostered greater polarization and left little room for nuance, experimentation, and creativity in what policy positions were developed. One young man I spoke to felt democracy was at stake in this election and while he could see the moral imperative to vote, he couldn’t stomach engaging in a system that was antithetical to his deepest-held beliefs and values. The choices left him feeling betrayed and not an America he wanted to be part of. It made me think: after this election is said and over (and there is no guarantee it will be a tidy affair), lots of work needs to be done to repair the fraying social fabric and reach out across differences. 

The disenfranchisement in the U.S. cannot be rectified overnight and perhaps this election, with everything we have seen and witnessed already, will be exactly the wake-up call America needs to come back stronger and be truly the United States.

Finally, as a Canadian, I would be remiss if I didn’t spend some time reflecting on what the US election means for us on the north side of the 49th parallel. 

Economic anxieties and fear of instability with our largest trading partner loom large. While both Harris and Trump appear to be more protectionist than ideal in their trade philosophies, the degree and nature of their policies may differ. There is so much more to say and I will reconnect on this in a future post. For now, I invite you to read my Substack post from June where I outlined some of my initial observations and the thought-provoking work of the Matter More - A Canadian Strategy for a Changing United States report by the Public Policy Forum. 

That coming together I mentioned can start today. 

Tonight as the polls close, I encourage you to take time to catch some of the media coverage, and if you can connect with friends to unpack and deliberate (and depending on the outcome, this may involve celebrating, commiserating and/or strategizing). 

As The Atlantic’s Lora Kelley notes, ‘An election-watch gathering might seem trivial in light of all that. But Americans have always come together to try to make sense of the changes that come with a transfer of power, and doing so is still worthwhile—especially at a time when unifying rituals feel out of reach.’

So as I gather with friends tonight (playing our fair share of Election Night Bingo with a dash of American Trivia thrown in), here are 5 things on my mind:

1) This will be the gender election. 

There is a significant gender gap in who women and men will vote for this coming election, more so than in previous elections. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, women have been energized to vote to combat the attacks on sexual and reproductive health and rights in the U.S. This election in many ways will be decided by how many White college-educated women come out to vote versus how many White non-college-educated men stay at home. The greater the delta, the greater the indication of polarization. 

2)Young people are not a monolith. 

Surprisingly, and in contrast to long-held wisdom, polls are indicating that one of the sharpest gender divides we will see today will be between young women and young men. Usually, younger voters skew more progressive and more likely to be Democrat voters. However, in this election, we are seeing more young men than ever before likely to vote for Republicans and Donald Trump. There are many contributing factors from economic anxieties, the decline in middle-class industrial jobs, and subsequent changing gender norms where young men are trying to calibrate where they fit in society and how best they can contribute. Recent episodes on podcasts such as The New York Times’ The Daily and CBC’s Front Burner have done a great job of breaking down the gender and age analysis. 

3)The Road to the White House is paved by at least 270 Electoral College votes. 

In the U.S., each state has several electoral college votes based on population size. The greater the number of people in the State, the more votes they get. California and Texas have 54 and 40 respectively whereas Wyoming and Vermont have 3 each. The first one to 270 wins. 

Right now, based on past elections, the electoral college votes of the states the Democrats are expected to hold on to equal 226 whereas for Republicans it totals 219 electoral college votes from 24 states. That means, Kamala Harris needs 44 of the remaining 93 electoral college votes up for grabs. Donald Trump needs 51. (A great overview by Al Jazeera if you are interested in learning more).

As a Canadian, I’ve found how Americans determine their President is not the most intuitive. Want to learn more about the Electoral College math? CBC’s Andrew Chang breaks it down in this helpful video explainer and this one too. Here’s a fascinating one by Vox embedding American history. If you check them out, you’ll know the Electoral College will meet in each state on December 17 to cast their ballot. 

4)It will all come down to the swing states.

As alluded to in the earlier section, the majority of the states will go the way they have always gone and are considered safely Democrat or Republican. That is not where the election will be won. 

This election will be won or lost for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in 7 battleground states: The ‘Rust Belt’ States of Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes); and the ‘Sun Belt’ States of Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).

Not all swing states are created equal. As you can see, each state has a different set of electoral votes it is associated with. As I saw first-hand as I was travelling through Michigan and Pennsylvania last month, the issues of concern to voters, rurality, the diversification of economic industries in the different states, and racial demographics are all determining factors that will influence the final outcome in each swing state. 

It will be a definite nail-biter tonight to see which presidential candidate gets which state to tabulate the elusive 270 electoral college votes to secure the White House. 

 5) Or rather a swing state, singular: Good Ol’Pennsylvania. 

While all swing states are not the same, Pennsylvania will play an outsized role in influencing the outcome of this election. Out of all the swing states, it has the greatest number of electoral votes at 19. There are a variety of peculiarities that will also make it one to watch. Northern states like Pennsylvania have a higher likelihood of mail-in ballots that do skew more Democrat (though even that gap is narrowing in this election vs. 2020). Pennsylvania also has specific rules on when voting can happen - mail-in ballots don’t start getting counted till election day morning whereas in other states the voting may have already started so it’s a matter of time. Finally, Pennsylvania is a large state with a great range of political opinions across its geography with urban centers more likely to turn Democrat like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and more rural communities impacted by industrialization feeling the economic pain of job loss after manufacturing jobs left. Fracking is a hot topic in Pennsylvania with many seeing it as a key pathway to sustainable livelihoods and voters are still unclear where Kamala Harris stands on the topic now compared to her previous comments. On the Republican side, Elon Musk has taken a great interest in the state and his SuperPAC has invested heavily in the Get-Out-The-Vote campaign. 

It’s anyone’s guess which way Pennsylvania goes.  In 2020, it went for the Democrats. In 2016, the Republicans. Where will it land in 2024? Only time will tell. 

–

That’s what’s on my radar. What's yours? 

All eyes are on the U.S. tonight - let me know what you will be keeping your eye on as the results get tabulated.  

–

It’s about a month till my 3-year Planniversary - excited to reconnect with you all in a few weeks. I’ve been slowly reminiscing about all the wonderful youth leadership programming and policy advocacy campaigns I’ve had the privilege of being part of this year alongside my teammates so far during my time at Plan International Canada. Time has just flown by! What a wonderful adventure it's been so far and can’t wait to see what else is around the corner. 

Till next time, take good care.  

With heart + determination,

Anjum

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This program is for youth aged 14-24 and is focused on driving policy change and promoting gender equality. Participants will enhance their advocacy skills through a comprehensive curriculum, virtual workshops, and an online platform. They will work on implementing policy recommendations from our report on body confidence, self-esteem, and youth leadership in Canada. Activities include meetings with local officials, creating impactful events, and advocating for systemic change. A modest honorarium is provided, and the fellowship includes access to an in-person National Activation Youth Summit in May 2025.

Questions? Reach out to Team PLAY (Policy, Leadership, Advocacy, and Youth) at Plan International Canada at youth@plancanada.ca

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